Key Findings:
- Commercial Property is entering new phase of “cautious recovery”
- Overall capital value and rental expectations for all three commercial property asset types show a positive outlook for this year
- Chartered Commercial Surveyors expect national prime industrial values to rise by 4% and rents to rise by 4.4% on average
- Prime office capital values are forecast to rise by 2.4%, with rents expected to increase by 2.9% on average
- Prime retail values and rents are expected to rise by just over 1% on average
- 47% of survey participants view the market as being in some phase of recovery or upswing
Tuesday 10th March 2026: Occupier and investment sentiment in commercial property improved significantly in the second half of 2025 and as a result, chartered commercial and valuation surveyors are predicting a rise in rents and capital values across all three main commercial property asset types this year.
Prime and secondary industrial properties have outperformed the other property sectors over recent years and once again they are forecast to experience the highest percentage increases in capital and rental values in 2026.
The Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland Commercial Property Review and Outlook Report 2026 predicts that national average capital values for prime industrial will rise by 4%, while rents will rise by 4.4%.
Chartered commercial and valuation surveyors expect prime office capital values and rents to increase by 2.4% and 2.9% respectively while they believe prime retail capital values will increase by 1.2% and rental values by 1.1% on average.
Commentary
Bernadine Hogan, Chair of the SCSI Commercial Agency Group, said the survey findings point to a prevailing sense of cautious optimism with the majority of respondents anticipating continued improvement in market conditions.
“Both occupier and investor expectations have strengthened relative to previous years, supported by a modest recovery in take-up, clearer pricing signals, and more stable credit conditions.”
“Respondents are reporting increasing enquiry levels and a notable improvement in investor confidence. For example, we anticipate that a number of larger office transactions will materialise later in the year.”
“Our survey found that 50% of respondents now view valuations as close to fair value, suggesting that repricing across several segments may be approaching its cyclical floor. Together with the recent stabilisation in credit conditions, the data suggests that the market is entering an early recovery phase.”
SCSI President Gerard O’Toole said that while the market is showing welcome signs of stabilisation, the improvement is not uniform.
“Commercial property performance is continuing to vary by sector. Prime industrial assets are still leading the way, supported by steady demand from logistics, pharma and distribution occupiers. In contrast, the office and retail markets are seeing more mixed conditions, with performance differing by location and asset quality.”
“In several prime segments, particularly industrial, limited supply remains a key theme. This is helping to sustain competition for well-located, high-quality space and is supporting both rents and capital values. However, new development remains challenging, as high construction costs and lengthy planning processes continue to affect project viability.”
“While any signs of a recovery are most welcome, Ireland like the rest of the world is not immune to the impact of persistent geopolitical instability and international conflict. In that context, the potential economic impact of the unfolding situation in the Middle East is naturally concerning.”
“This research was clearly carried out before the current outbreak of hostilities. While the situation is fluid and the timeline is as yet uncertain, there is no doubt a protracted war could lead to a period of sustained higher energy costs and an unwelcome increase in construction inflation, which in recent years has returned to more moderate levels.”
Sectoral Analysis
For prime industrial properties, 69% of surveyors expect the capital value to increase and 71% anticipate an increase in rental values.
As one would expect sentiment towards secondary industrial assets is more moderate, 50% expect capital values to increase, and 51% expect rental prices to rise. However, a significant portion, 41% for capital and 40% for rental, respectively, expect prices to remain the same.
Fifty-six percent of chartered surveyors expect an increase in prime office capital values while 35% expect values to remain the same, and 9% expect a decline. Expectations for prime office rents are somewhat more bullish, with 60% of surveyors anticipating an increase, 29% expect stability and 10% expect a decrease. (Figures are rounded).
Sentiment regarding secondary offices is considerably weaker. Only 28% of respondents expect capital values to rise and 72% believe values will remain unchanged or fall. Rental expectations also reflect subdued confidence, with 71% forecasting either decline or stability.
For prime retail spaces, 42% of surveyors expect capital values to increase in 2026, and the same percentage anticipate an increase in rental values. With regard to capital values, a majority, 45% believe they will remain unchanged while for rental, the figure is 44%.
In contrast, secondary retail spaces face more pronounced challenges. Twenty-one percent of surveyors expect capital values to decrease, along with 30% expecting a decrease in rental values. A majority of 48% for capital and 53% for secondary retail rental expect the values to remain the same.
Other Sectors
The survey found student housing remains one of the stronger-performing sectors, with rental growth projected at 3.2% and capital values expected to rise by 3.1% on average, supported by resilient demand and structurally constrained supply.
Data centres also demonstrate comparatively robust momentum, with rents forecast to increase by 3.5% and capital values by 3.2% on average, underpinned by ongoing expansion in the digital economy and sustained occupier demand.
Aged care facilities are expected to deliver steady, albeit more moderate, performance, with rental growth of 2.8% and capital value growth of 2.7% on average, reflecting long-term demographic support tempered by operational and funding considerations.
Multi-family residential assets are forecast to record solid but moderating growth, with rents rising by 2.7% and capital values by 2.4% on average, in line with easing but still positive housing market fundamentals. Hotels are expected to deliver the weakest performance among the alternative sectors, with rental and capital value growth both projected at 2% on average, indicating a cautious and uneven recovery within the hospitality sector.
Outlook
Survey responses suggest that the majority of businesses anticipate stability in their office space requirements over the next two years. Fifty-five percent of respondents expect no reduction in their current office footprint.
Overall, the data suggests that while a sizeable minority of SCSI agents continue to anticipate some degree of downsizing, sentiment has shifted towards greater stability in occupier requirements compared with previous periods.
The survey found a significant majority of respondents (91%) believe tenants will demand more in terms of health and well-being features in the real estate they occupy, and notably, 73% expect tenants to be willing to pay a premium for these facilities. This points to a structural shift in occupier priorities, reinforcing the competitive advantage of modern, sustainable and amenity-rich office buildings over older offices.
Bernadine Hogan said; “The findings highlight an outlook characterised by greater stability in overall space requirements, continued polarisation by asset quality, and rising expectations around workplace standards. While macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties remain a backdrop to decision-making, the survey results suggest that occupier demand in 2026 will be increasingly selective rather than uniformly contractionary.”