The Key Findings:
- Estate agents expect national property prices to increase by an average of 6% over the next 12 months
- 83% of agents describe current residential property prices as expensive or very expensive
- Three out of four agents report low stock levels – circa 60% say the lack of supply is the main driver of price inflation
- 61% believe prices are rising but will level off soon
- The report includes affordability scenarios for Cork, Galway, Kildare, Meath and Wicklow
- A couple on a combined income of €107K who want to buy a new 3 bed semi and have the 10% deposit will afford to buy in 3 of these locations
- In the two most expensive counties, Wicklow and Kildare, couples will face shortfalls of €35,500 and €14,000 respectively
- While agents say the number of buy-to-let properties coming to the market is continuing to increase, the pace of this trend is slowing
Thursday, January 16th, 2025: Estate agents who are members of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) expect national property prices to increase by an average of 6% over the next twelve months. This is up on the 4.5% increase which SCSI agents forecast for the market in the summer of 2024.
The SCSI’s Annual Residential Review and Outlook report – now in its 42nd year – found that 83% of agents now believe current property prices are either ‘expensive’ or ‘very expensive’.
When asked where they believe we are in the market cycle, 61% of respondents believe prices are rising but will level off soon.
Gerard O’Toole, Vice President of the SCSI described current rates of property inflation – the CSO estimates annual rate of inflation at circa 10% – as unsustainable.
“Our survey responses suggest agents believe there will be a shift towards more balanced growth expectations with less emphasis on rapid price increases. Given the affordability challenges facing all buyers, particularly first-time buyers, a slowdown or period of market stabilisation would be most welcome.”
“Three out of four agents (76%) reported low stock levels – up slightly on last year – with the majority of agents indicating that the lack of supply was the main factor influencing expectations around house price movements. Mr O’Toole said the lack of supply will remain the dominant issue until annual completion levels are ramped up to 40,000 plus.”
“A year ago, 40% of agents identified the lack of supply as the main issue affecting price movements, now that number is around 60%. That and the fact three out of four agents (76%) are continuing to report low stock levels, reflect the reality of the Irish property market.”
“The other main factors, which our members believe are influencing price movements include lower interest rates and the availability of credit (12%), access to schemes supporting house purchases such as Help to Buy (8%) and changes in the state of the economy (8%). Fifty-three percent of agents report a slight improvement in credit conditions and believe this was the main factor impacting the higher than anticipated price movements in late 2024.”
Current Affordability Scenarios
With property prices nationally having increased by 155%* from their low point in early 2013, the SCSI included five scenarios for a couple earning a combined income of €107,000** and availing of the Help to Buy scheme towards their 10% deposit in its latest report.
The scenarios, demonstrate the affordability gap, if any, which exists between the total mortgage purchase limit available to a couple on average incomes looking to buy their first home and average new house purchase prices in five different locations. The scenarios included new three-bedroom semi-detached, two bedroom terraced and three-bedroom terraced homes.

Fig 1 – Five scenarios. The purchase prices listed here are average purchase prices of 3 bed semi-detached homes based on new housing developments in the five counties analysed.
The analysis revealed that all house types across Meath, Cork, and Galway were affordable for this FTB couple while in Kildare and Wicklow the two-bed terraced and three-bed terraced houses were affordable. However, three-bed semi-detached houses remain unaffordable in both Kildare and Wicklow, with affordability gaps of €13,900 and €35,500, respectively.
Gerard O’Toole says analysis of trends across the five counties indicates that rising prices are making affordability more challenging.
“These trends suggest that the pace of property price growth is higher than income growth in several regions, especially Dublin’s commuter counties, creating pressures for prospective buyers. While the housing market remains active and resilient, there is a growing need to address these emerging affordability concerns. A balanced approach to increasing housing supply and reducing housing delivery costs could help to alleviate these pressures, fostering a more sustainable and inclusive housing market in the long term.”
“In addition, the introduction of higher densities, more broadly integrated housing mix which better reflects the needs of modern Irish society will be required if we are to address the housing supply crisis.”
“While Dublin is not included in the scenarios, based on house prices in the capital, it’s clear they are not affordable based on the income thresholds within the study. It’s also clear that unaffordability is restricting employment opportunities for many newly qualified professionals with many job vacancies remaining unfilled, particularly in education and health.”
“It’s important to note that couples on lower incomes will struggle to purchase a home within the private market with their only realistic prospect seeking to qualify for either social or affordable housing.”
“In the long term the only way to moderate and gradually lower the affordability gap is by ramping up the supply of new homes. At the moment new housing supply is being curtailed by infrastructure deficits in water, electricity and sewerage. Zoned lands cannot be developed without these essential connections and considerable additional resources need to be applied by the state in this area as a matter of urgency.”
Rental Sector
The SCSI tracks members’ views on the activity of landlords placing their investment properties on the market for sale. Agents believe just over a third of sales instructions (34%) are from landlords looking to sell their investment, down from 40% six months ago.
Gerard O’Toole says the SCSI will continue to carefully monitor this trend.
“While agents have seen a noticeable fall off in the number of landlords leaving the market, the number is still rising. The three main reasons cited for their departure from the market continue to be, overly complex and restrictive rent legislation, net rental returns are too low, and some landlords coming out of negative equity. These factors collectively contribute to mounting pressure on landlords to divest their properties. The impact of Rent Pressure Zones (RPZ) and evolving tax policies are seen as being particularly significant.”
For media queries please call the SCSI at (01) 6445500 and ask for Patrick King.
*CSO Residential Property Price Index November 2024 Residential Property Price Index September 2024 – Central Statistics Office
**The average salary is based on the combined wages of a garda and a staff nurse after 10 years of service. Combined gross salary €106,855 (Garda after 10 years’ service €55,592; staff nurse after 10 years’ service €51,263. LTI: four times gross salary. Deposit amount 10%. Total purchase limit = LTI plus deposit amount. The methodology assumes the couple avail of the Help to Buy scheme towards their 10% deposit.
Note to Editor
SCSI Annual Residential Property Review and Outlook Report 2025
The SCSI Annual Residential Property Review & Outlook Report 2025 is a sentiment report, which is informed by the professional opinion of 134 SCSI agents across the country and brings together their insights and local knowledge on Ireland’s sales and rental market. The questionnaire was completed by SCSI members in late November and the first week of December.